Autor: Gómez Montenegro, Brenda Emiliana; Suárez, Franco Marcelo; Balzarini, Mónica; Giolitti, Fabian; Martino, Julia Andrea; Bruno, Cecilia; Alemandri, Vanina Maria

Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) is the causal agent of one of the most destructive diseases in wheat cultivation, with yield losses of up to 100%.

This virus belongs to the genus Tritimovirus in the family Potyviridae and is transmitted by the wheat curl mite (WCM). Virus-vector-crop interactions are modulated by climatic variables in each wheat-growing region of Argentina, determining both disease development and vector population dynamics. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the presence of WSMV in wheat and different biometeorological variables, using 1206 records from agricultural plots in the wheat-growing region of Argentina sampled between 2006 and 2022, aggregated at the plot level, resulting in 286 plots used as the unit of analysis. For this purpose, climatic variables were downloaded for the months of January to November. A stepwise logistic regression was applied with the diagnostic criteria of p-value and Variance Inflation Factor to reduce multicollinearity among variables. Subsequently, the presence/absence of WSMV was modelled with the selected variables through the use of a Random Forest classification. The predictive model identified key variables such as dew point in January and May, wind speed in February and April, relative humidity in June and accumulated rainfall from January to May, achieving an accuracy of 65% and the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.75. The results underline the relevance of climatic conditions in the spread of the virus and highlight the need for preventive measures, such as vector management, the use of resistant cultivars and the adoption of agricultural practices adapted to climate variability.

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